Monday, April 16, 2012

I'd love to see the distribution on those retributions

This article claims that El Salvador's first murder free day in almost 3 years is due to a change in security measures. I'm a little more skeptical. Clearly the murder rate isn't bound above zero. It might be unlikely given their homicide rate of 66 per 100k, but there is nothing that leads me to believe that it might not happen randomly (in fact I think it just might have). Making an attribution like this would be very well backed up by reporting a homicide rate that has fallen since the new measures have taken place.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

MLB.tv blackout policy

I bought MLB tv for $125 a season. The price was high but seemed justified because a) I love cubs games and live out of market b) I like baseball and my TV is often off because I dont pay for cable c) I can watch games on my tablet anywhere I have WIFI.

I have never been one to give up something I enjoy to make a point. I'm a logical person and if I get more benefit from using something than the cost of the frustration resulting from whatever I would be making a point out of, I stick with it. However, I may cancel my MLB tv subscription just to make a point. MLB tv blacks out games in local networks, blacks out the playoffs, and blacks out games on Sat 1-8pm and Sun after 5pm.

The service is specifically marketed to people wanting "to watch out of market games" so I could deal with the first restriction. I think the MLB is making a mistake by missing out on the trend of consumers detaching themselves from cable, but whatever. 

Blacking out playoff games is annoying, because they dont really black them out (they just make you pay more for them). Again, I don't agree with this (they should at least change the name from 'full season' to 'regular season') but I can't hate for them wanting to make money. I could deal with this.

The weekend blackout is something I cannot deal with. The purpose behind the blackout is that Fox has been granted Saturday afternoon exclusivity. This means they pick a couple of games to play on TV (sometimes local, but typically its a Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers game) and tells everyone else to go screw off. Dont want to watch the Yankees play the Angels? Too bad, its that game or its nothing. 

Baseball games are not identical goods. If I cant watch the cubs play, I wont automatically sit down on the couch and watch the Yankees play because baseball is baseball. There are a few people who might do this, but they are far from the majority. I realize Fox is making more money this way, and this means the MLB is making more money, but they are hurting so many fans and potential fans in their pursuit of a small bump to their profit line. Its a travesty, and I just dont know if I can stand for it.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Fantasy Baseball Shotgun Strategy

I've been struggling to find a decent fantasy baseball (FBB) league. I became tired of my old league and was set to use 2012-2013 to find a league of serious owners to start a long-term auction keeper league next year. To play this format, you need to be more active and knowledgeable than the average bear. My strategy was a shotgun method of meeting people; I would join a large number of leagues and handpick active and intelligent owners.

Unfortunately, this is taking up far too much time for the information I am gaining. It has shown me a huge flaw in the websites that offer free fantasy baseball (namely the three largest, ESPN CBS and YAHOO). You have the choice to join a private league by invite, or a public league. The public league is essentially worthless. In the ~10 drafts I took place in, only one had more than half the owners show up. While this does not mean their team will be poor, it is far from a good sign that they will be active participants. Of those half that did show up, less than half were setting lineups during week three. Almost none of those who did not show up for the draft has had any activity.

It baffles me how one of these websites has not found a way to set up an index to judge owner activity. The closest I have found was 'winners leagues'. Using winners to judge activity may have high sensitivity, but it has an exceptionally low specificity. Creating an index with moves per week, percentage of season played, and/or number of weeks starting a player on the DL would do a lot to entice active owners to one of these three sites. These are the owners who are generating the most add revenue and would represent the most valuable commodity for the site. Why has no one figured this out?