I have always been interested in sports economics. I've even put some serious thought into offering to teach a sports statistics course in whatever department teaches students how to get a job in the sports world and then make horrible decisions. And not because I care, oh no. Because sometimes those guys get my goat.
A prime example is this Tim Tebow fiasco. If you haven't heard, get on the internet or watch TV for 5 minutes and you're bound to hear something about it. Short story is, he is on the trading block. I've seen the kid play from his days in high school, to his time at UF, and followed his transition to the NFL. And if there's one thing I've taken from the journey, its that the system is about as backwards as it gets. It's like the owners of NFL teams and the heads of athletic departments got a magic fortune cookie and woke up in each other's bodies (or whatever the hell the plot of Freaky Friday was).
News broke that Tebow was going to the Jets for a 4th round pick. It was widely assumed that this was solely to improve locker room presence, seeing as the Jets just gave their starting QB a contract that could keep him there for 5 years and $68 million. Clearly, the owners of the Jets hadn't watched Tebow play last year, or would have seen how disruptive bringing in a fan favorite to sit behind a QB who has a history of prolonged struggles can be. Sanchez was on the verge of a QB controversy with Mark Brunell as his backup, for Christ's sake.
Before this post gets too long, I'm just going to come out and say it. The NFL doesn't understand that they are running a business. Will Tebow win you more games than Blaine Gabbert? I don't know, it's an awefully low bar, but he might not. Will Tebow sell seats in his home town, a one hour drive away from the college where he won two national championships? You bet your ass he would. There is a clear incentive to getting a guy like Tebow that goes beyond his ability to win football games. Was he worth a 4th round pick? Who was the Jags 4th round pick last year? How many seats did he fill? Im guess two, and that's assuming his parents are willing to watch the shit-show that is a Jags-Bills game. The NFL parades itself as an oligopoly that has the primary goal of making money, but they don't seem to understand how that works. There is a pretty key variable that they are leaving out of their decision models.
College teams, on the other hand, seem to have gotten this to a science. They have gamed the system to keep millions in bowl payouts between a handful of powerful teams, have their own TV networks, and hell, they just walk up to rich people and ask them for money. And it works. They kick effective players off their teams, sacrificing ability to win for image (see Tebow's back-up, future Heisman winner and ex-laptop-thief Cam Newton). They force out long-term coaches not when they stop winning, but when the boosters turn against them (see Bowden and Paterno). They price discriminate (donation based lotto systems for season tickets), abuse free natural resources (young kids and students), control members of the legislative branch, have formed enormous barriers to entry, and have some how finagled the ability to self-regulate. This is how I expect an intelligent industry with no government regulation to act.
To understand it all, you just have to look at who is running things. Professional sports are primarily run by die-hard fans (Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys, etc), or by a city itself (Packers). College sports are run by businessmen and rich alumni. This is the exact opposite of the images they try to create, and the opposite of what I feel the college vs professional sports roles should be. Maybe they could use a magic fortune cookie after all.
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