Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Fantasy Baseball Shotgun Strategy

I've been struggling to find a decent fantasy baseball (FBB) league. I became tired of my old league and was set to use 2012-2013 to find a league of serious owners to start a long-term auction keeper league next year. To play this format, you need to be more active and knowledgeable than the average bear. My strategy was a shotgun method of meeting people; I would join a large number of leagues and handpick active and intelligent owners.

Unfortunately, this is taking up far too much time for the information I am gaining. It has shown me a huge flaw in the websites that offer free fantasy baseball (namely the three largest, ESPN CBS and YAHOO). You have the choice to join a private league by invite, or a public league. The public league is essentially worthless. In the ~10 drafts I took place in, only one had more than half the owners show up. While this does not mean their team will be poor, it is far from a good sign that they will be active participants. Of those half that did show up, less than half were setting lineups during week three. Almost none of those who did not show up for the draft has had any activity.

It baffles me how one of these websites has not found a way to set up an index to judge owner activity. The closest I have found was 'winners leagues'. Using winners to judge activity may have high sensitivity, but it has an exceptionally low specificity. Creating an index with moves per week, percentage of season played, and/or number of weeks starting a player on the DL would do a lot to entice active owners to one of these three sites. These are the owners who are generating the most add revenue and would represent the most valuable commodity for the site. Why has no one figured this out?  

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